Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#86 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9INE#92 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY pick
65%64%
UNiTY · 19 mapsnearly even +1%9INE · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
61%60%
UNiTY · 19 mapsnearly even +1%9INE · 6 maps
Cache9INE pick
56%55%
UNiTY · 12 mapsnearly even +1%9INE · 7 maps
Dust29INE ban
53%38%
UNiTY · 15 mapsedge UNiTY +15%9INE · 4 maps
Inferno9INE ban
62%60%
UNiTY · 17 mapsnearly even +2%9INE · 1 map
AnubisUNiTY ban
62%40%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge UNiTY +22%9INE · 6 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
29%46%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge 9INE +17%9INE · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. Ban9INE remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. Pick9INE take Cache
5. Ban9INE remove Dust2
6. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (61% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
UNiTY 54%9INE 46%
The model gave 54% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
UNiTY 49%9INE 51%
The model gave 51% on 9INE — the map was taken by 9INE.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
UNiTY 52%9INE 48%
The model gave 52% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 52%
Series resultUNiTY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3