Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
FOKUS#52 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
UNiTY#73 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY pick
53%67%
FOKUS · 13 mapsedge UNiTY +14%UNiTY · 20 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
80%53%
FOKUS · 16 mapsedge FOKUS +27%UNiTY · 13 maps
Dust2UNiTY ban
39%53%
FOKUS · 14 mapsedge UNiTY +14%UNiTY · 15 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
38%63%
FOKUS · 9 mapsedge UNiTY +25%UNiTY · 20 maps
InfernoFOKUS ban
33%62%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge UNiTY +29%UNiTY · 17 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
60%29%
FOKUS · 16 mapsedge FOKUS +31%UNiTY · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
56%62%
FOKUS · 5 mapsedge UNiTY +6%UNiTY · 9 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickFOKUS take Cache
4. PickUNiTY take Ancient
5. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
6. BanFOKUS remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (56% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
FOKUS 25%UNiTY 75%
The model gave 75% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
FOKUS 80%UNiTY 20%
The model gave 80% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
FOKUS 36%UNiTY 64%
The model gave 64% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteFOKUS · 62%
Series resultUNiTY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3