CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#100 in the world · win 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bushido Wildcats#113 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
56%68%
Fire Flux · 21 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +12%Bushido Wildcats · 49 maps
MirageFire Flux ban
50%53%
Fire Flux · 16 mapsnearly even -3%Bushido Wildcats · 39 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
47%55%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +8%Bushido Wildcats · 29 maps
CacheFire Flux pick
63%54%
Fire Flux · 15 mapsedge Fire Flux +9%Bushido Wildcats · 20 maps
AnubisBushido Wildcats ban
68%41%
Fire Flux · 18 mapsedge Fire Flux +27%Bushido Wildcats · 13 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
65%50%
Fire Flux · 13 mapsedge Fire Flux +15%Bushido Wildcats · 14 maps
Defaultpossible decider
63%79%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +16%Bushido Wildcats · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Cache
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
6. BanFire Flux remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (63% / 79%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Fire Flux 35%Bushido Wildcats 65%
The model gave 65% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Anubisprediction correct16:14
Fire Flux 78%Bushido Wildcats 22%
The model gave 78% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 61%
Series resultFire Flux 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2