NSTLGA Emerald Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#169 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LAG#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
42%55%
DETONATE · 15 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 16 maps
MirageLAG ban
42%44%
DETONATE · 8 mapsnearly even -2%LAG · 14 maps
NukeDETONATE pick
54%67%
DETONATE · 9 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 11 maps
AnubisDETONATE ban
42%69%
DETONATE · 8 mapsedge LAG +27%LAG · 9 maps
Dust2DETONATE ban
50%63%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge LAG +13%LAG · 15 maps
AncientLAG pick
50%75%
DETONATE · 6 mapsedge LAG +25%LAG · 8 maps
CacheLAG ban
54%50%
DETONATE · 9 mapsnearly even +4%LAG · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Dust2
2. BanLAG remove Cache
3. PickDETONATE take Nuke
4. PickLAG take Ancient
5. BanLAG remove Mirage
6. BanDETONATE remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (42% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct19:22
DETONATE 26%LAG 74%
The model gave 74% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
DETONATE 35%LAG 65%
The model gave 65% on LAG — the map was taken by LAG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLAG · 82%
Series resultLAG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2