CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LPH#166 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
66%44%
Black Phoenix · 67 mapsedge Black Phoenix +22%LPH · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%53%
Black Phoenix · 26 mapsnearly even -3%LPH · 11 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
42%36%
Black Phoenix · 27 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%LPH · 7 maps
MirageLPH ban
51%67%
Black Phoenix · 31 mapedge LPH +16%LPH · 2 maps
InfernoLPH pick
65%70%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge LPH +5%LPH · 6 maps
CacheLPH ban
46%29%
Black Phoenix · 24 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%LPH · 3 maps
AncientBlack Phoenix ban
33%61%
Black Phoenix · 2 mapsedge LPH +28%LPH · 14 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Ancient
2. BanLPH remove Cache
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickLPH take Inferno
5. BanLPH remove Mirage
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed19:17
Black Phoenix 44%LPH 56%
The model gave 56% on LPH — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Black Phoenix 73%LPH 27%
The model gave 73% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by LPH.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Black Phoenix 35%LPH 65%
The model gave 65% on LPH — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 73%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3