BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
67%61%
Yawara · 14 mapsedge Yawara +6%Isurus · 14 maps
MirageYawara pick
60%58%
Yawara · 16 mapsnearly even +2%Isurus · 8 maps
AncientIsurus ban
44%50%
Yawara · 12 mapsedge Isurus +6%Isurus · 8 maps
InfernoYawara ban
56%50%
Yawara · 5 mapsedge Yawara +6%Isurus · 8 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%50%
Yawara · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 10 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
44%50%
Yawara · 5 mapsedge Isurus +6%Isurus · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsedge Yawara +17%Isurus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanIsurus remove Anubis
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Ancient
6. BanYawara remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Yawara 53%Isurus 47%
The model gave 53% on Yawara — the map was taken by Isurus.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Yawara 55%Isurus 45%
The model gave 55% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Yawara 56%Isurus 44%
The model gave 56% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 56%
Series resultYawara 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3