WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
TrafficPills#230 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageTrafficPills ban
29%57%
TrafficPills · 3 mapsedge NEXORA +28%NEXORA · 3 maps
NukeTrafficPills pick
50%33%
TrafficPills · 2 mapsedge TrafficPills +17%NEXORA · 2 maps
CacheNEXORA ban
33%40%
TrafficPills · 2 mapsedge NEXORA +7%NEXORA · 1 map
Dust2NEXORA pick
40%67%
TrafficPills · 1 mapedge NEXORA +27%NEXORA · 2 maps
InfernoNEXORA ban
57%50%
TrafficPills · 3 mapsedge TrafficPills +7%NEXORA · 0 maps
AncientTrafficPills ban
50%33%
TrafficPills · 0 mapsedge TrafficPills +17%NEXORA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTrafficPills remove Ancient
2. BanNEXORA remove Inferno
3. PickTrafficPills take Nuke
4. PickNEXORA take Dust2
5. BanNEXORA remove Cache
6. BanTrafficPills remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
TrafficPills 21%NEXORA 79%
The model gave 79% on NEXORA — the map was taken by TrafficPills.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
TrafficPills 69%NEXORA 31%
The model gave 69% on TrafficPills — the map was taken by TrafficPills.
Model check result
Model favoriteTrafficPills · 54%
Series resultTrafficPills 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2