WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TrafficPills#230 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientTrafficPills ban
57%50%
Nemesis · 24 mapsedge Nemesis +7%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Dust2Nemesis ban
57%40%
Nemesis · 19 mapsedge Nemesis +17%TrafficPills · 1 map
InfernoNemesis pick
74%57%
Nemesis · 15 mapsedge Nemesis +17%TrafficPills · 3 maps
MirageNemesis ban
38%38%
Nemesis · 12 mapsnearly even +0%TrafficPills · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
65%57%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Nemesis +8%TrafficPills · 3 maps
CacheTrafficPills ban
67%33%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +34%TrafficPills · 2 maps
DefaultTrafficPills pick
29%50%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge TrafficPills +21%TrafficPills · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Mirage
2. BanTrafficPills remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Inferno
4. PickTrafficPills take Default
5. BanTrafficPills remove Cache
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (65% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Nemesis 63%TrafficPills 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Nemesis 70%TrafficPills 30%
The model gave 70% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 81%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2