Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · win 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
50%58%
Omega · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +8%ASTRAL · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%55%
Omega · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%ASTRAL · 7 maps
Dust2Omega pick
63%50%
Omega · 4 mapsedge Omega +13%ASTRAL · 4 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
57%57%
Omega · 3 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 3 maps
InfernoOmega ban
50%33%
Omega · 0 mapsedge Omega +17%ASTRAL · 5 maps
OverpassASTRAL ban
29%50%
Omega · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%ASTRAL · 0 maps
AnubisOmega ban
50%60%
Omega · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%ASTRAL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Inferno
2. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
3. PickOmega take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
6. BanOmega remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (43% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Omega 65%ASTRAL 35%
The model gave 65% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
Omega 39%ASTRAL 61%
The model gave 61% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 69%
Series resultOmega 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2