BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard#46 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
50%58%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +8%Wildcard · 8 maps
MirageAcend pick
73%71%
Acend · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Wildcard · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%75%
Acend · 1 mapedge Wildcard +15%Wildcard · 4 maps
OverpassAcend ban
50%57%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Wildcard · 3 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%50%
Acend · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 0 maps
InfernoWildcard ban
60%43%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +17%Wildcard · 3 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%75%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +25%Wildcard · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickWildcard take Dust2
5. BanWildcard remove Inferno
6. BanAcend remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (60% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Acend 69%Wildcard 31%
The model gave 69% on Acend — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Acend 39%Wildcard 61%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 59%
Series resultWildcard 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2