WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
70%50%
Virtus.pro · 16 mapsedge Virtus.pro +20%XMETA · 0 maps
MirageXMETA ban
64%50%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%XMETA · 0 maps
CacheVirtus.pro ban
54%50%
Virtus.pro · 9 mapsnearly even +4%XMETA · 0 maps
AnubisXMETA pick
42%50%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge XMETA +8%XMETA · 0 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
42%50%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge XMETA +8%XMETA · 0 maps
AncientXMETA ban
80%50%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +30%XMETA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
2. BanXMETA remove Ancient
3. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
4. PickXMETA take Anubis
5. BanXMETA remove Mirage
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Cache
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Virtus.pro 61%XMETA 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Cacheprediction correct13:0
Virtus.pro 57%XMETA 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 80%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2