WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageXMETA pick
40%33%
XMETA · 1 mapedge XMETA +7%EVO Elite · 2 maps
Dust2XMETA ban
50%33%
XMETA · 0 mapsedge XMETA +17%EVO Elite · 2 maps
AncientEVO Elite ban
50%40%
XMETA · 0 mapsedge XMETA +10%EVO Elite · 1 map
AnubisEVO Elite pick
50%40%
XMETA · 0 mapsedge XMETA +10%EVO Elite · 1 map
CacheEVO Elite ban
40%50%
XMETA · 1 mapedge EVO Elite +10%EVO Elite · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXMETA remove Dust2
2. BanEVO Elite remove Cache
3. PickXMETA take Mirage
4. PickEVO Elite take Anubis
5. BanEVO Elite remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:14
XMETA 60%EVO Elite 40%
The model gave 60% on XMETA — the map was taken by XMETA.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
XMETA 57%EVO Elite 43%
The model gave 57% on XMETA — the map was taken by EVO Elite.
Anubisprediction missed5:13
XMETA 60%EVO Elite 40%
The model gave 60% on XMETA — the map was taken by EVO Elite.
Model check result
Model favoriteXMETA · 50%
Series resultEVO Elite 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3