WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · win 2:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
66%33%
Black Phoenix · 69 mapsedge Black Phoenix +33%EVO Elite · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
51%29%
Black Phoenix · 33 mapsedge Black Phoenix +22%EVO Elite · 3 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
44%50%
Black Phoenix · 28 mapsedge EVO Elite +6%EVO Elite · 2 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix ban
50%50%
Black Phoenix · 28 mapsnearly even +0%EVO Elite · 0 maps
CacheEVO Elite ban
46%50%
Black Phoenix · 24 mapsnearly even -4%EVO Elite · 0 maps
InfernoEVO Elite ban
65%50%
Black Phoenix · 22 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%EVO Elite · 0 maps
DefaultEVO Elite pick
53%50%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsnearly even +3%EVO Elite · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanEVO Elite remove Cache
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickEVO Elite take Default
5. BanEVO Elite remove Inferno
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (51% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Black Phoenix 41%EVO Elite 59%
The model gave 59% on EVO Elite — the map was taken by EVO Elite.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Black Phoenix 81%EVO Elite 19%
The model gave 81% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Black Phoenix 50%EVO Elite 50%
The model gave 50% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 86%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3