WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisUPGRADE pick
52%50%
UPGRADE · 21 mapnearly even +2%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
Dust2BlinkDagger pick
57%50%
UPGRADE · 17 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%BlinkDagger · 2 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
38%40%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsnearly even -2%BlinkDagger · 1 map
AncientBlinkDagger ban
62%50%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge UPGRADE +12%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
CacheBlinkDagger ban
33%50%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge BlinkDagger +17%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
38%60%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge BlinkDagger +22%BlinkDagger · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%BlinkDagger · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
2. BanBlinkDagger remove Ancient
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickBlinkDagger take Dust2
5. BanBlinkDagger remove Cache
6. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
UPGRADE 26%BlinkDagger 74%
The model gave 74% on BlinkDagger — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
UPGRADE 60%BlinkDagger 40%
The model gave 60% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 76%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2