WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionEex-CYBERSHOKE#123 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
50%66%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 2 mapsedge Black Phoenix +16%Black Phoenix · 70 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
50%54%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Black Phoenix · 33 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
60%42%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge ex-CYBERSHOKE +18%Black Phoenix · 29 maps
Nukeex-CYBERSHOKE pick
60%52%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 1 mapedge ex-CYBERSHOKE +8%Black Phoenix · 29 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Black Phoenix · 26 maps
Infernoex-CYBERSHOKE ban
50%64%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%Black Phoenix · 21 map
Defaultex-CYBERSHOKE ban
50%53%
ex-CYBERSHOKE · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-CYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. Pickex-CYBERSHOKE take Nuke
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. Banex-CYBERSHOKE remove Default
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
ex-CYBERSHOKE 31%Black Phoenix 69%
The model gave 69% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
ex-CYBERSHOKE 49%Black Phoenix 51%
The model gave 51% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 68%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2