WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheK27 pick
40%53%
NEXORA · 1 mapedge K27 +13%K27 · 26 maps
MirageNEXORA pick
60%67%
NEXORA · 6 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 20 maps
Nukepossible decider
25%54%
NEXORA · 4 mapsedge K27 +29%K27 · 20 maps
AncientNEXORA ban
33%43%
NEXORA · 2 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 17 maps
Dust2K27 ban
71%40%
NEXORA · 3 mapsedge NEXORA +31%K27 · 11 maps
AnubisK27 ban
60%75%
NEXORA · 1 mapedge K27 +15%K27 · 8 maps
DefaultNEXORA ban
50%60%
NEXORA · 0 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXORA remove Ancient
2. BanK27 remove Dust2
3. PickNEXORA take Mirage
4. PickK27 take Cache
5. BanK27 remove Anubis
6. BanNEXORA remove Default
DeciderNuke (25% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
NEXORA 46%K27 54%
The model gave 54% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
NEXORA 20%K27 80%
The model gave 80% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 81%
Series resultK27 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2