WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheK27 pick
53%57%
K27 · 26 mapsnearly even -4%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
68%71%
K27 · 21 mapnearly even -3%Virtus.pro · 13 maps
NukeK27 ban
56%50%
K27 · 21 mapedge K27 +6%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
Dust2K27 ban
40%70%
K27 · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +30%Virtus.pro · 16 maps
AncientVirtus.pro pick
43%80%
K27 · 17 mapsedge Virtus.pro +37%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
75%42%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +33%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
DefaultVirtus.pro ban
60%50%
K27 · 1 mapedge K27 +10%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Dust2
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Default
3. PickK27 take Cache
4. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (68% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
K27 20%Virtus.pro 80%
The model gave 80% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
K27 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2