WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO5
result vs prediction
Nemesis#46 in the world · loss 2:3series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · win 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
54%71%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 17 maps
AncientNemesis pick
62%80%
Nemesis · 22 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
33%71%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +38%Virtus.pro · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
73%60%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Virtus.pro · 11 maps
NukeNemesis pick
63%50%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
76%50%
Nemesis · 17 mapsedge Nemesis +26%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%42%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +8%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. PickNemesis take Nuke
6. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
DeciderCache (73% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Nemesis 67%Virtus.pro 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Nemesis 16%Virtus.pro 84%
The model gave 84% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Nemesis 31%Virtus.pro 69%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Nemesis 29%Virtus.pro 71%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
Nemesis 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 5