ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
65%46%
INOX Division · 13 mapsedge INOX Division +19%ex-MANA · 20 maps
Ancientpossible decider
53%54%
INOX Division · 11 mapsnearly even -1%ex-MANA · 9 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
59%33%
INOX Division · 18 mapsedge INOX Division +26%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
72%30%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +42%ex-MANA · 6 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
42%38%
INOX Division · 8 mapsnearly even +4%ex-MANA · 4 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%62%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge ex-MANA +12%ex-MANA · 9 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%50%
INOX Division · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
5. Banex-MANA remove Cache
6. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (53% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
INOX Division 46%ex-MANA 54%
The model gave 54% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
INOX Division 77%ex-MANA 23%
The model gave 77% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 63%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2