ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 9 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KAMUI#202 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLFO 10 pick
40%80%
LFO 10 · 6 mapsedge KAMUI +40%KAMUI · 6 maps
Dust2LFO 10 ban
29%57%
LFO 10 · 3 mapsedge KAMUI +28%KAMUI · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%50%
LFO 10 · 3 mapsedge LFO 10 +7%KAMUI · 2 maps
AncientKAMUI ban
50%33%
LFO 10 · 2 mapsedge LFO 10 +17%KAMUI · 2 maps
InfernoLFO 10 ban
40%50%
LFO 10 · 1 mapedge KAMUI +10%KAMUI · 2 maps
AnubisKAMUI ban
50%40%
LFO 10 · 0 mapsedge LFO 10 +10%KAMUI · 1 map
DefaultKAMUI pick
60%50%
LFO 10 · 1 mapedge LFO 10 +10%KAMUI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 10 remove Dust2
2. BanKAMUI remove Anubis
3. PickLFO 10 take Mirage
4. PickKAMUI take Default
5. BanKAMUI remove Ancient
6. BanLFO 10 remove Inferno
DeciderCache (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
LFO 10 60%KAMUI 40%
The model gave 60% on LFO 10 — the map was taken by LFO 10.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 10 · 54%
Series resultLFO 10 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1