ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT Academy#130 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LPH#166 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT Academy pick
56%42%
WBT Academy · 14 mapsedge WBT Academy +14%LPH · 8 maps
NukeWBT Academy ban
42%50%
WBT Academy · 8 mapsedge LPH +8%LPH · 12 maps
AncientLPH pick
56%61%
WBT Academy · 5 mapsedge LPH +5%LPH · 14 maps
Dust2possible decider
77%50%
WBT Academy · 9 mapsedge WBT Academy +27%LPH · 6 maps
MirageLPH ban
38%57%
WBT Academy · 9 mapsedge LPH +19%LPH · 3 maps
InfernoWBT Academy ban
50%73%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge LPH +23%LPH · 7 maps
CacheLPH ban
50%29%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge WBT Academy +21%LPH · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT Academy remove Inferno
2. BanLPH remove Cache
3. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
4. PickLPH take Ancient
5. BanLPH remove Mirage
6. BanWBT Academy remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (77% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
WBT Academy 39%LPH 61%
The model gave 61% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
WBT Academy 66%LPH 34%
The model gave 66% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
WBT Academy 44%LPH 56%
The model gave 56% on LPH — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT Academy · 69%
Series resultWBT Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3