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BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiators#46 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageInner Circle ban
40%33%
Gaimin Gladiators · 1 mapedge Gaimin Gladiators +7%Inner Circle · 2 maps
AncientGaimin Gladiators ban
50%40%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Gaimin Gladiators +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
DefaultGaimin Gladiators ban
50%60%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
Dust2Inner Circle pick
50%60%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
NukeGaimin Gladiators pick
50%40%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Gaimin Gladiators +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
OverpassInner Circle ban
40%50%
Gaimin Gladiators · 1 mapedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Ancient
2. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
3. PickGaimin Gladiators take Nuke
4. PickInner Circle take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle remove Mirage
6. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Inner Circle 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Overpassprediction correct15:19
Gaimin Gladiators 43%Inner Circle 57%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 54%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2