RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8#22 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
68%50%
K27 · 21 mapedge K27 +18%B8 · 14 maps
Cachepossible decider
52%56%
K27 · 27 mapsnearly even -4%B8 · 5 maps
AncientB8 pick
43%67%
K27 · 17 mapsedge B8 +24%B8 · 8 maps
NukeB8 ban
58%57%
K27 · 22 mapsnearly even +1%B8 · 3 maps
Dust2K27 ban
39%62%
K27 · 14 mapsedge B8 +23%B8 · 9 maps
AnubisB8 ban
75%50%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +25%B8 · 0 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%45%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +5%B8 · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanB8 remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickB8 take Ancient
5. BanB8 remove Nuke
6. BanK27 remove Dust2
DeciderCache (52% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
K27 54%B8 46%
The model gave 54% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
K27 26%B8 74%
The model gave 74% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
K27 68%B8 32%
The model gave 68% on K27 — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 56%
Series resultB8 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3