RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#22 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HOTU#43 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
64%65%
B8 · 10 mapsnearly even -1%HOTU · 22 maps
CacheHOTU pick
56%64%
B8 · 5 mapsedge HOTU +8%HOTU · 21 map
MirageB8 pick
53%71%
B8 · 15 mapsedge HOTU +18%HOTU · 10 maps
AncientHOTU ban
67%56%
B8 · 8 mapsedge B8 +11%HOTU · 14 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%55%
B8 · 0 mapsedge HOTU +5%HOTU · 16 maps
NukeB8 ban
50%56%
B8 · 4 mapsedge HOTU +6%HOTU · 12 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
45%40%
B8 · 7 mapsedge B8 +5%HOTU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. PickB8 take Mirage
4. PickHOTU take Cache
5. BanHOTU remove Ancient
6. BanB8 remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (64% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
B8 64%HOTU 36%
The model gave 64% on B8 — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
B8 46%HOTU 54%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 73%
Series resultHOTU 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2