BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wildcard pick
64%50%
Wildcard · 7 mapsedge Wildcard +14%Inner Circle · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
75%60%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +15%Inner Circle · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle ban
43%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +7%Inner Circle · 0 maps
MirageWildcard ban
67%40%
Wildcard · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +27%Inner Circle · 1 map
NukeInner Circle pick
71%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +21%Inner Circle · 0 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
57%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Inner Circle · 0 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%40%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle take Nuke
5. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (75% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Wildcard 61%Inner Circle 39%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Wildcard 77%Inner Circle 23%
The model gave 77% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Wildcard 71%Inner Circle 29%
The model gave 71% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 51%
Series resultWildcard 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3