RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegion#27 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
67%50%
HOTU · 23 mapsedge HOTU +17%GamerLegion · 10 maps
CacheGamerLegion pick
64%71%
HOTU · 21 mapedge GamerLegion +7%GamerLegion · 10 maps
AncientHOTU ban
58%50%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge HOTU +8%GamerLegion · 12 maps
NukeHOTU ban
56%63%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge GamerLegion +7%GamerLegion · 12 maps
MirageGamerLegion ban
71%29%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +42%GamerLegion · 10 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
55%50%
HOTU · 16 mapsedge HOTU +5%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%40%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HOTU +17%GamerLegion · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Nuke
2. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickGamerLegion take Cache
5. BanGamerLegion remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
HOTU 69%GamerLegion 31%
The model gave 69% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
HOTU 41%GamerLegion 59%
The model gave 59% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 55%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2