ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Privateer#226 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePrivateer pick
44%45%
OG · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Privateer · 7 maps
Dust2Privateer ban
67%38%
OG · 5 mapsedge OG +29%Privateer · 4 maps
AncientOG ban
57%50%
OG · 3 mapsedge OG +7%Privateer · 4 maps
OverpassOG pick
60%50%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +10%Privateer · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%67%
OG · 3 mapsedge Privateer +10%Privateer · 2 maps
MirageOG ban
43%50%
OG · 3 mapsedge Privateer +7%Privateer · 2 maps
CachePrivateer ban
29%40%
OG · 3 mapsedge Privateer +11%Privateer · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Mirage
2. BanPrivateer remove Dust2
3. PickOG take Overpass
4. PickPrivateer take Nuke
5. BanPrivateer remove Cache
6. BanOG remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
OG 40%Privateer 60%
The model gave 60% on Privateer — the map was taken by OG.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
OG 79%Privateer 21%
The model gave 79% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 70%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2