BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PsychoFace pick
20%50%
AM · 6 mapsedge PsychoFace +30%PsychoFace · 6 maps
NukeAM pick
55%40%
AM · 7 mapsedge AM +15%PsychoFace · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
75%71%
AM · 4 mapsnearly even +4%PsychoFace · 3 maps
AncientPsychoFace ban
50%40%
AM · 4 mapsedge AM +10%PsychoFace · 1 map
MirageAM ban
57%50%
AM · 3 mapsedge AM +7%PsychoFace · 2 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%50%
AM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PsychoFace · 4 maps
InfernoPsychoFace ban
63%50%
AM · 4 mapsedge AM +13%PsychoFace · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanPsychoFace remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Nuke
4. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
5. BanPsychoFace remove Ancient
6. BanAM remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (75% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
AM 18%PsychoFace 82%
The model gave 82% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
AM 60%PsychoFace 40%
The model gave 60% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
AM 64%PsychoFace 36%
The model gave 64% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 51%
Series resultAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3