ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BAKS#112 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
55%44%
Fire Flux · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +11%BAKS · 5 maps
MirageBAKS ban
50%43%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +7%BAKS · 3 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
57%71%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge BAKS +14%BAKS · 3 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
70%50%
Fire Flux · 6 mapsedge Fire Flux +20%BAKS · 0 maps
CacheBAKS pick
43%71%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsedge BAKS +28%BAKS · 3 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
67%50%
Fire Flux · 2 mapsedge Fire Flux +17%BAKS · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%63%
Fire Flux · 1 mapedge BAKS +23%BAKS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickBAKS take Cache
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (40% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
Fire Flux 63%BAKS 37%
The model gave 63% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by BAKS.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Fire Flux 26%BAKS 74%
The model gave 74% on BAKS — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Fire Flux 23%BAKS 77%
The model gave 77% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 65%
Series resultBAKS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3