Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MANA#86 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
63%50%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge GenOne +13%MANA · 4 maps
NukeMANA pick
56%60%
GenOne · 14 mapsnearly even -4%MANA · 1 map
AncientMANA ban
45%33%
GenOne · 7 mapsedge GenOne +12%MANA · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
70%50%
GenOne · 6 mapsedge GenOne +20%MANA · 2 maps
OverpassMANA ban
36%40%
GenOne · 7 mapsnearly even -4%MANA · 1 map
MirageGenOne ban
50%40%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge GenOne +10%MANA · 6 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
50%57%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge MANA +7%MANA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanMANA remove Overpass
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickMANA take Nuke
5. BanMANA remove Ancient
6. BanGenOne remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
GenOne 66%MANA 34%
The model gave 66% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
GenOne 60%MANA 40%
The model gave 60% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 58%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2