CS Asia Championships 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MOUZ ban
69%57%
Falcons · 9 mapsedge Falcons +12%MOUZ · 3 maps
AncientFalcons pick
70%50%
Falcons · 6 mapsedge Falcons +20%MOUZ · 4 maps
MirageFalcons ban
50%67%
Falcons · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +17%MOUZ · 5 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
50%70%
Falcons · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +20%MOUZ · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ ban
50%56%
Falcons · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +6%MOUZ · 5 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%71%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +21%MOUZ · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanMOUZ remove Dust2
3. PickFalcons take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Inferno
6. BanFalcons remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Falcons 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Falcons 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Falcons 30%MOUZ 70%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 66%
Series resultFalcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3