ViderGG CTRL POINT Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Legion#223 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Legion pick
29%50%
Legion · 10 mapsedge BadKids +21%BadKids · 0 maps
MirageBadKids ban
63%50%
Legion · 4 mapsedge Legion +13%BadKids · 0 maps
AnubisLegion ban
43%50%
Legion · 3 mapsedge BadKids +7%BadKids · 0 maps
CacheBadKids pick
29%50%
Legion · 3 mapsedge BadKids +21%BadKids · 0 maps
NukeBadKids ban
57%50%
Legion · 3 mapsedge Legion +7%BadKids · 0 maps
InfernoLegion ban
33%50%
Legion · 2 mapsedge BadKids +17%BadKids · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%50%
Legion · 1 mapedge BadKids +10%BadKids · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLegion remove Inferno
2. BanBadKids remove Mirage
3. PickLegion take Dust2
4. PickBadKids take Cache
5. BanBadKids remove Nuke
6. BanLegion remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed12:16
Legion 54%BadKids 46%
The model gave 54% on Legion — the map was taken by BadKids.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Legion 31%BadKids 69%
The model gave 69% on BadKids — the map was taken by BadKids.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegion · 53%
Series resultBadKids 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2