BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 13:5series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 13:5
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageInner Circle ban
67%40%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +27%Inner Circle · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
INFINITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 0 maps
AncientInner Circle ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Inner Circle · 0 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Inner Circle · 0 maps
DefaultINFINITE ban
50%60%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Inner Circle · 1 map
NukeINFINITE ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Inner Circle · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. BanINFINITE remove Default
4. BanInner Circle remove Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
6. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
INFINITE 60%Inner Circle 40%
The model gave 60% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 57%
Series resultINFINITE 13:5
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1