Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
67%29%
Falcons · 14 mapsedge Falcons +38%Astralis · 3 maps
AncientAstralis pick
55%58%
Falcons · 7 mapsnearly even -3%Astralis · 8 maps
MirageFalcons ban
33%50%
Falcons · 8 mapsedge Astralis +17%Astralis · 4 maps
NukeAstralis ban
67%27%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +40%Astralis · 7 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
56%71%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Astralis +15%Astralis · 3 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
67%50%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +17%Astralis · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%57%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Astralis +7%Astralis · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Inferno
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Nuke
6. BanFalcons remove Mirage
DeciderCache (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Falcons 43%Astralis 57%
The model gave 57% on Astralis — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Falcons 85%Astralis 15%
The model gave 85% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 84%
Series resultFalcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2