BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 3:13series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 3:13
Acend#125 in the world · win 13:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
75%67%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +8%Acend · 5 maps
AncientAcend ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Acend · 4 maps
Dust2Acend ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 2 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
50%60%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
AnubisINFINITE ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Acend · 0 maps
DefaultINFINITE ban
50%60%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
NukeAcend ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
4. BanAcend remove Dust2
5. BanINFINITE remove Default
6. BanAcend remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (75% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
INFINITE 60%Acend 40%
The model gave 60% on INFINITE — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 53%
Series resultAcend 3:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1