BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 13:9series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 13:9
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 9:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HAVU ban
40%27%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +13%HAVU · 7 maps
OverpassHAVU ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 4 mapsnearly even +0%HAVU · 2 maps
NukeKOLESIE ban
50%50%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HAVU · 4 maps
AncientHAVU ban
29%50%
KOLESIE · 3 mapsedge HAVU +21%HAVU · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge HAVU +7%HAVU · 2 maps
MirageKOLESIE ban
50%43%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +7%HAVU · 3 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%33%
KOLESIE · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%HAVU · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
2. BanHAVU remove Ancient
3. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
4. BanHAVU remove Dust2
5. BanKOLESIE remove Nuke
6. BanHAVU remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
KOLESIE 57%HAVU 43%
The model gave 57% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 50%
Series resultKOLESIE 13:9
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1