BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 3:13series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 3:13
Acend#125 in the world · win 13:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageHAVU ban
43%67%
HAVU · 3 mapsedge Acend +24%Acend · 5 maps
Dust2Acend ban
30%40%
HAVU · 6 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
AncientHAVU ban
50%50%
HAVU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 4 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%50%
HAVU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge HAVU +7%Acend · 1 map
InfernoHAVU ban
33%60%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge Acend +27%Acend · 1 map
OverpassAcend ban
50%40%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge HAVU +10%Acend · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Ancient
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. BanHAVU remove Inferno
4. BanAcend remove Dust2
5. BanHAVU remove Mirage
6. BanAcend remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
HAVU 39%Acend 61%
The model gave 61% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 57%
Series resultAcend 3:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1