MESA Pro Series Halloween Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#38 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
26%40%
5star · 15 mapsedge The Audacity +14%The Audacity · 1 map
InfernoThe Audacity ban
65%50%
5star · 16 mapsedge 5star +15%The Audacity · 0 maps
NukeThe Audacity ban
55%50%
5star · 16 mapsedge 5star +5%The Audacity · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
55%50%
5star · 7 mapsedge 5star +5%The Audacity · 0 maps
Mirage5star ban
64%50%
5star · 7 mapsedge 5star +14%The Audacity · 0 maps
Anubis5star pick
71%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +21%The Audacity · 0 maps
DefaultThe Audacity pick
40%50%
5star · 1 mapedge The Audacity +10%The Audacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Ancient
2. BanThe Audacity remove Inferno
3. Pick5star take Anubis
4. PickThe Audacity take Default
5. BanThe Audacity remove Nuke
6. Ban5star remove Mirage
DeciderCache (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
5star 32%The Audacity 68%
The model gave 68% on The Audacity — the map was taken by The Audacity.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
5star 58%The Audacity 42%
The model gave 58% on 5star — the map was taken by The Audacity.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 85%
Series resultThe Audacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2