MESA Pro Series Halloween Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#62 in the world · win 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukethe ONE ban
62%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 22 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +12%the ONE · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
52%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 17 mapsnearly even +2%the ONE · 0 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
57%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 17 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +7%the ONE · 0 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
58%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 15 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +8%the ONE · 0 maps
Miragethe ONE ban
60%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 6 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%the ONE · 0 maps
Cachethe ONE pick
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsnearly even +0%the ONE · 0 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
29%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 3 mapsedge the ONE +21%the ONE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
2. Banthe ONE remove Nuke
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
4. Pickthe ONE take Cache
5. Banthe ONE remove Mirage
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (52% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Chinggis Warriors 55%the ONE 45%
The model gave 55% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Chinggis Warriors 55%the ONE 45%
The model gave 55% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 82%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2