MESA Pro Series Halloween Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
5star#38 in the world · win 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
25%40%
5star · 16 mapsedge the ONE +15%the ONE · 1 map
Inferno5star pick
65%50%
5star · 16 mapsedge 5star +15%the ONE · 0 maps
Nukethe ONE ban
55%50%
5star · 16 mapsedge 5star +5%the ONE · 0 maps
Cachethe ONE ban
50%50%
5star · 8 mapsnearly even +0%the ONE · 0 maps
Mirage5star ban
64%50%
5star · 7 mapsedge 5star +14%the ONE · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%50%
5star · 3 mapsedge 5star +21%the ONE · 0 maps
Defaultthe ONE pick
40%50%
5star · 1 mapedge the ONE +10%the ONE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban5star remove Ancient
2. Banthe ONE remove Nuke
3. Pick5star take Inferno
4. Pickthe ONE take Default
5. Banthe ONE remove Cache
6. Ban5star remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
5star 61%the ONE 39%
The model gave 61% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
5star 68%the ONE 32%
The model gave 68% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 88%
Series result5star 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2