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MESA Pro Series Halloween Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Audacitywin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chinggis Warriors#62 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
50%62%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +12%Chinggis Warriors · 22 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%55%
The Audacity · 1 mapedge Chinggis Warriors +15%Chinggis Warriors · 18 maps
AncientThe Audacity pick
50%60%
The Audacity · 2 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 16 maps
InfernoThe Audacity ban
50%57%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +7%Chinggis Warriors · 17 maps
MirageThe Audacity ban
50%60%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
60%50%
The Audacity · 1 mapedge The Audacity +10%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge The Audacity +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Audacity remove Inferno
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickThe Audacity take Ancient
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. BanThe Audacity remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (40% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
The Audacity 43%Chinggis Warriors 57%
The model gave 57% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
The Audacity 36%Chinggis Warriors 64%
The model gave 64% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by The Audacity.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
The Audacity 60%Chinggis Warriors 40%
The model gave 60% on The Audacity — the map was taken by The Audacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 78%
Series resultThe Audacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3