MESA Pro Series Halloween Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chinggis Warriors#62 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
60%61%
The Audacity · 1 mapnearly even -1%Chinggis Warriors · 24 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%64%
The Audacity · 3 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +21%Chinggis Warriors · 18 maps
Dust2The Audacity ban
40%55%
The Audacity · 1 mapedge Chinggis Warriors +15%Chinggis Warriors · 18 maps
InfernoThe Audacity ban
50%55%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +5%Chinggis Warriors · 18 maps
CacheThe Audacity pick
67%44%
The Audacity · 2 mapsedge The Audacity +23%Chinggis Warriors · 5 maps
MirageChinggis Warriors ban
50%60%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%29%
The Audacity · 0 mapsedge The Audacity +21%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Audacity remove Inferno
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickThe Audacity take Cache
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Mirage
6. BanThe Audacity remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (43% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:14
The Audacity 42%Chinggis Warriors 58%
The model gave 58% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by The Audacity.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
The Audacity 43%Chinggis Warriors 57%
The model gave 57% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
The Audacity 49%Chinggis Warriors 51%
The model gave 51% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 72%
Series resultChinggis Warriors 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3