BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Passion UA#33 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Betclic#65 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePassion UA ban
33%33%
Passion UA · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Betclic · 2 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
57%29%
Passion UA · 3 mapsedge Passion UA +28%Betclic · 3 maps
AnubisPassion UA ban
40%71%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge Betclic +31%Betclic · 3 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
63%50%
Passion UA · 4 mapsedge Passion UA +13%Betclic · 0 maps
NukePassion UA ban
40%29%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge Passion UA +11%Betclic · 3 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
50%40%
Passion UA · 2 mapsedge Passion UA +10%Betclic · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
33%50%
Passion UA · 2 mapsedge Betclic +17%Betclic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPassion UA remove Nuke
2. BanBetclic remove Overpass
3. BanPassion UA remove Anubis
4. BanBetclic remove Inferno
5. BanPassion UA remove Mirage
6. BanBetclic remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Passion UA 33%Betclic 67%
The model gave 67% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 75%
Series resultBetclic 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1