BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Passion UA#33 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:1
RBLS#93 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePassion UA ban
40%55%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge RBLS +15%RBLS · 7 maps
Dust2RBLS ban
63%57%
Passion UA · 4 mapsedge Passion UA +6%RBLS · 3 maps
InfernoPassion UA ban
57%67%
Passion UA · 3 mapsedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 2 maps
MirageRBLS ban
33%50%
Passion UA · 5 mapsedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%43%
Passion UA · 2 mapsedge Passion UA +7%RBLS · 3 maps
AnubisRBLS ban
40%33%
Passion UA · 1 mapedge Passion UA +7%RBLS · 2 maps
AncientPassion UA ban
50%40%
Passion UA · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +10%RBLS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPassion UA remove Nuke
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. BanPassion UA remove Ancient
4. BanRBLS remove Anubis
5. BanPassion UA remove Inferno
6. BanRBLS remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Passion UA 50%RBLS 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 74%
Series resultRBLS 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1