BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Oramond#119 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragefnatic ban
50%60%
fnatic · 6 mapsedge Oramond +10%Oramond · 1 map
AnubisOramond ban
50%40%
fnatic · 4 mapsedge fnatic +10%Oramond · 1 map
Infernofnatic pick
67%50%
fnatic · 5 mapsedge fnatic +17%Oramond · 0 maps
Dust2Oramond pick
50%60%
fnatic · 2 mapsedge Oramond +10%Oramond · 1 map
AncientOramond ban
50%50%
fnatic · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Oramond · 0 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%40%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge fnatic +10%Oramond · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanOramond remove Ancient
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickOramond take Dust2
5. BanOramond remove Anubis
6. Banfnatic remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
fnatic 37%Oramond 63%
The model gave 63% on Oramond — the map was taken by fnatic.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
fnatic 63%Oramond 37%
The model gave 63% on fnatic — the map was taken by Oramond.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
fnatic 40%Oramond 60%
The model gave 60% on Oramond — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 84%
Series resultOramond 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3