HyperX Retake Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#11 in the worldseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start
BBBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
43%50%
Natus Vincere · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner +7%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner pick
31%50%
Natus Vincere · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner +19%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner ban
70%50%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +20%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
40%50%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner +10%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner ban
60%50%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +10%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
AncientNatus Vincere ban
38%50%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner +12%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
AnubisNatus Vincere pick
63%50%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge Natus Vincere +13%BASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner remove Cache
3. PickNatus Vincere take Anubis
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner take Mirage
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner remove Nuke
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS/Toobisies winner · 55%