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FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#35 in the world · win 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bounty Hunters#77 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
84%60%
100 Thieves · 15 mapsedge 100 Thieves +24%Bounty Hunters · 11 maps
MirageBounty Hunters pick
57%55%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsnearly even +2%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
Ancient100 Thieves ban
53%44%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsedge 100 Thieves +9%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%44%
100 Thieves · 10 mapsedge 100 Thieves +13%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
57%52%
100 Thieves · 3 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%Bounty Hunters · 19 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
55%60%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +5%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
50%50%
100 Thieves · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
4. PickBounty Hunters take Mirage
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (57% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
100 Thieves 56%Bounty Hunters 44%
The model gave 56% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
100 Thieves 80%Bounty Hunters 20%
The model gave 80% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 67%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2