Gamers Club Masters VII · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NNAOCOPULAS#145 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 11 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +13%NAOCOPULAS · 1 map
CacheNAOCOPULAS ban
71%40%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 10 mapsedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +31%NAOCOPULAS · 1 map
AncientNAOCOPULAS pick
36%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 10 mapsedge NAOCOPULAS +14%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
MirageQUINTESSÊNCIA pick
62%60%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 9 mapsnearly even +2%NAOCOPULAS · 1 map
InfernoQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
44%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 5 mapsedge NAOCOPULAS +6%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
AnubisQUINTESSÊNCIA ban
43%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 3 mapsedge NAOCOPULAS +7%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
DefaultNAOCOPULAS ban
60%50%
QUINTESSÊNCIA · 1 mapedge QUINTESSÊNCIA +10%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Anubis
2. BanNAOCOPULAS remove Cache
3. PickQUINTESSÊNCIA take Mirage
4. PickNAOCOPULAS take Ancient
5. BanNAOCOPULAS remove Default
6. BanQUINTESSÊNCIA remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
QUINTESSÊNCIA 66%NAOCOPULAS 34%
The model gave 66% on QUINTESSÊNCIA — the map was taken by NAOCOPULAS.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
QUINTESSÊNCIA 33%NAOCOPULAS 67%
The model gave 67% on NAOCOPULAS — the map was taken by NAOCOPULAS.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAOCOPULAS · 53%
Series resultNAOCOPULAS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2