FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#47 in the world · win 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHacha#210 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWildcard ban
40%67%
Wildcard · 11 mapsedge Hacha +27%Hacha · 2 maps
InfernoHacha ban
47%40%
Wildcard · 11 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Hacha · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
58%60%
Wildcard · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Hacha · 1 map
CacheHacha ban
56%50%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge Wildcard +6%Hacha · 0 maps
Dust2Hacha pick
57%50%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Hacha · 2 maps
DefaultWildcard pick
60%33%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +27%Hacha · 2 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%67%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Hacha +17%Hacha · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanHacha remove Inferno
3. PickWildcard take Default
4. PickHacha take Dust2
5. BanHacha remove Cache
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (58% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:6
Wildcard 45%Hacha 55%
The model gave 55% on Hacha — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Wildcard 60%Hacha 40%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 80%
Series resultWildcard 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2