CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC pick
58%49%
PCIFIC · 29 mapsedge PCIFIC +9%Nuclear TigeRES · 31 map
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
24%60%
PCIFIC · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +36%Nuclear TigeRES · 26 maps
NukePCIFIC ban
41%56%
PCIFIC · 18 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +15%Nuclear TigeRES · 14 maps
Infernopossible decider
47%73%
PCIFIC · 11 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +26%Nuclear TigeRES · 18 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%65%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +15%Nuclear TigeRES · 27 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
64%60%
PCIFIC · 10 mapsnearly even +4%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
53%33%
PCIFIC · 11 mapsedge PCIFIC +20%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickPCIFIC take Dust2
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
6. BanPCIFIC remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (47% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
PCIFIC 62%Nuclear TigeRES 38%
The model gave 62% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
PCIFIC 15%Nuclear TigeRES 85%
The model gave 85% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 68%
Series resultPCIFIC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2